New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment today has released their report Medium to Long Term Employment Outlook: Looking ahead to 2028.
The report says employment is projected to grow by 1.4 per cent annually, adding about 39,400 more workers on average per year to the workforce in the 10 years to 2028. Employment growth will be strongest for highly-skilled occupations (1.9 per cent or 22, 800 annually), and weakest for elementary occupations (1.0 per cent or 4,100 annually) over the forecast period.
The retail trade, accommodation and food services, business services and construction together are projected to add around 17,500 more workers per year to employment growth in the ten years to 2028.
The report has also found that there will be population growth and associated growth in domestic spending; an expanding business services sector and growth in exports. Each of these will be factors driving employment growth over the medium to long term.
Overall, MBIE has assessed two possible scenarios that may impact the projections. The first is the potential disruption to New Zealand exports over the next five years, arising from escalating trade tensions between our key trading partners. The second considers the potential impact of automation on employment across industries over the next 10 years.