The Medium to long-term employment outlook: Looking ahead to 2028, published by the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment in New Zealand has forecast 39,400 more workers on average each year to 2028. The department says employment is projected to grow by 1.4 per cent annually in the 10 years to 2028.
The report’s employment projections are based on GDP growth and other macroeconomic forecasts and productivity assumptions at the industry level, and are indicative of the likely growth path of employment.
The report also found nine out of the 16 aggregated industry groups will have higher than average annual growth over the 10 years to 2028. Of these industry groups, Transport, postal and warehousing (logistics) will have the strongest annual growth rate (2.3 per cent but only 2,700 additional employment per year as it is a small sector), followed by ‘Other manufacturing’ (2.1 per cent or 3,200 more employment per year) which are those not related to the processing of primary products.
In terms of the size of the employment growth, it will be higher in Business services (6,100 more employment per year or 1.7 per cent), Retail trade and accommodation (6,600 more employment per year or 1.7 per cent), and Construction and utilities (4,800 more employment or 1.7 per cent). Strong growth in household spending, residential investment and tourism will underpin this growth. Strong growth in exports over the projection period will also support employment growth.
Over the forecast period, employment growth will be weakest in the primary sector. Weak to modest growth is projected in primary processing and the public sector related to public administration and safety.
Employment growth will be strongest for highly-skilled occupations, including managers and professionals, which are projected to account about 58 per cent of the total employment growth in the ten years to 2028. Within the highly-skilled occupation group, annual growth with be fastest for advertising, public relations and sales managers and ICT managers.